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THE equation became painfully simple for Barwon Heads after Saturday's loss to Geelong Amateur.
Lose from now on, and any chance of playing finals is gone.
"The way we played the last two weeks, what we needed today was a better effort," Seagulls coach Peter O'Connor said after losses to Ocean Grove and Modewarre saw them lose their grip on fifth place.
"If that resulted in four points, well and good, but we just needed to turn it around because we'd been pretty ordinary for the last couple of weeks.
"It's still a loss, but it was a really good effort against a really good side."
The Seagulls stuck fast to their second-placed opponents, outplaying them in the second and fourth quarters. But O'Connor admitted it was the damage inflicted by the Ammos in the opening term that basically buried the game.
"I just think that we gave away two or three goals late in the first quarter that just put it a bit out of reach," O'Connor said.
"It was a very strong wind and when we kept it to four or five (goals) I thought it was going to be OK, but when it got to seven, it was going to be hard.
"They were just too good for us, probably (in) the last half of the first quarter and most of the second quarter.
"But the rest of the game I thought we were pretty good, pretty competitive."
An increase in tackling pressure from the previous two rounds impressed O'Connor.
That also was recognised by opposing co-coach Andrew Lovick, who credited the work of the Seagulls in battling on right through the last quarter.
"That had been our weakness in the last couple of weeks, we hadn't put any pressure on the opposition," O'Connor said.
"I think we might have got a bit ahead of ourselves thinking we were going to make finals and mentally we probably weren't hard enough, so it was good to get back into it today."
O'Connor was refreshingly frank about his side's run home.
Newcomb at home next week should be a win if things go to plan, but Drysdale in the final round is the match that all players are preparing themselves for.
"The last game against Drysdale is going to be tough because they're a good side," O'Connor said.
"They'll still be trying to make third and we'll be trying to make finals, so it should be a good game, and if we can't beat them, we don't deserve to be there.
"There's no point just struggling into the finals.
"We want to be playing good football if we make it and if we don't deserve to be there, we shouldn't be there."
Ammos blitz from the first bounce
A SEVEN-GOAL to nil first quarter from Geelong Amateur helped set up a hard-fought 27-point win over Barwon Heads in torrential conditions.
The Ammos managed only three goals for the rest of the match due to the waterlogged ground and the tenacity of their opposition, but it mattered little as their dominant start put the result almost beyond doubt by quarter-time.
"We needed to come out with a good attitude and a good mindset, and get off to a great start," Amateur co-coach Andrew Lovick said.
"We knew if we could get off to a great start while the conditions were good, while the ball was dry we knew there was forecast for rain, so our start was our real concentration."
Lovick was impressed at his side's ability to put into practice his specific pre-game focus, which put it in good stead for the rest of the afternoon.
The rampaging first quarter was certainly aided by a strong four to five-goal wind that proved handy for both sides.
Such was the extent of the wind, only one goal was kicked to the netball courts end for the entire match by both teams combined.
"It was a good toss to win," Lovick admitted. "To put the score on the board and apply some scoreboard pressure early was really good, and that's what we set out to do."
Barwon Heads failed to take full advantage of the breeze in the second term and the Ammos' relentless defensive pressure was in effect.
The rain began to pour just after the half-time siren and barely stopped for the rest of the game.
Amateur went into lockdown mode, denying its opponents any score in the third quarter while adding two goals of its own to create an unbeatable 49-point margin by three-quarter-time.
"When that rain came down it was all about the discipline, accountability and then just the basics of football," Lovick said.
"Trying to get the ball forward, keeping it alive, kicking it off the ground, get it going our way (and) hitting the boundary if we needed to.
"We knew with that first quarter (we) had the score on the board.
"They had to throw something at us and we were just sort of able to play our normal game plan and bottle the ball up."
Geelong Amateur now has a favourable final two rounds, against Anglesea away and then Portarlington at home.
But Lovick is aware that the prospect of two lower opponents heading into finals is a double-edged sword.
"With Anglesea and Port, we've got a few sore guys at the moment," he said.
"Not disrespecting them in any way, and we're going to go down there obviously to win the last two games, but it might give us an opportunity to rest a couple of guys.
"But it can also go the other way and really give us the wrong mindset leading into finals, so we'll be training accordingly for it."